When Trust Shifts, Where Do We Stand?

Sep 14

3 min read

Updated: Sep 15

Oddly enough, most of us don't notice that trust has changed - until it starts to affect us.

This applies not only to us as individuals, but also to relationships between states. This is true of the relationship between Canada and the U.S.A., built over decades of economic, political, and social interdependence. In addition, they speak the same language, and their cultures feel similar and familiar. Trust between them has long run parallel with predictability.

As Canadians in the ’80s, we learned early in school, to our great amazement, that Canada was the second-largest country in the world in terms of surface area - second only to Russia and slightly larger than China. Even more mind-boggling back then was realizing we were larger than our super cool and powerful neighbour: the United States of America.

In our lessons, as we became more aware of other superpowers across oceans, we also learned in history class which one we could trust.

Canada and the U.S.A. shared vast historical, economic, and cultural common ground. Back then, what it meant to be Canadian for us was still too vague and intangible to articulate beyond stating “We’re not American.” Despite the obvious similarities, we knew in our hearts that we were distinct in our own unique ways.

We felt we knew what to expect from our neighbour. We also assumed that our neighbour knew what to expect from us.

Lately, however, the trust underlying this special relationship has shifted ground. What once felt stable and almost inevitable has now become more… conditional. In On Equal Footing’s experience, trust rarely disappears in a single moment. It often erodes in a series of smaller events that, individually, might seem too small to matter.

Following the recent breakdown of trade agreements between trusted allies, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney highlighted the changing nature of this bilateral relationship by pointing out that “America has changed” and that “sometimes its signature is written in pencil.” In a subsequent response, President Trump wrote on Truth Social that “Canada wants the benefits of being a State, without being one.”

A Canadian manufacturer used to be able to build a factory knowing that its American market would remain accessible.

An American company could invest in Canada knowing that Canadian resources and infrastructure would remain available.

Families could live on opposite sides without thinking of the border as a geopolitical fault line.

All of which makes the current conflict potentially more consequential than simply the dollar value or the tariffs themselves. As it turns out, the most important value resides in that trust.

Tariffs are easy to measure; damaged confidence in a relationship is harder to calculate.

Worse, what if unwritten rules of the relationship change again? How do we forecast for that? We suddenly start viewing and evaluating old relationships through a different lens. What does this relationship bring us? How exposed or vulnerable are we now?

A line can easily be drawn from politics to business, where the most important parts of a relationship often never make it into a contract. Our assumptions about reliability, reciprocity, communication styles, and good intentions frequently remain hidden in unwritten rules of trust.

Doing business cross-culturally can make this even more complicated.

What feels like trust to one party can look like informality to another; what one side considers a firm commitment may be understood by the other as an intention; and what one culture regards as respectful restraint can be interpreted elsewhere as hesitation—or even disagreement.

Whether in politics or in business, the most expensive part of a relationship is sometimes the assumption that you won’t have to renegotiate it.

A contract tells you what happens when trust runs out

A good collaboration is what keeps you from having to read the contract

One insight I've gained, watching the trade agreement unfold as a Canadian, is that the most revealing part of the conflict may not be what has changed economically, but rather what it exposes about any assumptions we make.

So, what happens when predictability disappears? Well, first it shifts how we do business, then who we do business with.